What is inside the Fracture Case?

Each open gives one item from one tier: a mil-spec skin on 79.9% of opens, a restricted skin on 16%, a classified skin on 3.2%, the covert pair on 0.6% and a knife on 0.3%. Those tier odds are the same in every weapon case; what changes is the skins and knives behind them.

What knives can you get from the Fracture Case?

Its golds are knives and nothing else. Finishes in the pool include ★ Survival Knife | Crimson Web, ★ Nomad Knife | Slaughter, ★ Paracord Knife | Case Hardened, ★ Skeleton Knife | Blue Steel and ★ Paracord Knife | Night Stripe. A finish found on one knife type is found on the others as well, so the pool is a grid of types by finishes.

What are the odds of getting a knife from the Fracture Case?

Any knife lands on 0.3% of opens. That is the chance of the tier, not of one knife: the open reaches the tier first and then picks a single finish, so the odds of one exact knife, such as ★ Skeleton Knife | Fade, are a small part of that figure.

What skins are in the Fracture Case?

When was the Fracture Case released, and can you get gloves from it?

The Fracture Case was released on August 6, 2020, and it has no gloves in any tier. Its rare special tier is all knives, so a gold from it is either a vanilla knife such as ★ Survival Knife or a finished one such as ★ Nomad Knife | Fade.

Is the Fracture Case worth it?

The expected value block on this page gives the answer in numbers, before fees: the value of every skin and knife, weighted by how often it drops, set against the price of the case and a key. ROI and profit chance sit next to it, and its figures change with each price snapshot.

Fracture Case

The Fracture Case puts 52 knife finishes in its rare special tier, all of them on ★ Nomad Knife, ★ Paracord Knife, ★ Skeleton Knife and ★ Survival Knife. Each of those knife types appears as a plain vanilla version and again in the same set of finishes.

Restricted and mil-spec skins make up the rest of its 17 weapon skins, and every one of them also comes in a StatTrak version.

Key: $2.49
Case: $0.46
EV per open: $0.87
ROI: 29.5%

Aggregated market prices, updated 09/30/2026, 06:41 UTC

Blended from marketplace data, such as Skinport, the Steam Community Market and other price APIs: a median of recent sales with a minimum volume.

How prices work

Quick mode

Free simulation: no real items, nothing to buy, no cash value.

This session

Opened: 0
Would have cost: $0.00
Profit: $0.00

Latest pull

Knifeless sim slab

Every pull is graded like a collectible card: tier, wear, float and pattern sealed on a slab. Classified and rarer pulls get a foil.

Sealed

Value: $0.00
Return: 0.0%
Unpriced: 0

Drops 0

Open a case and your drops land here.

Bulk open

Open up to 1,000 cases at once with no reel, and see how the run compares with the case's EV.

Expected value

$0.87per open

ROI: 29.5%
Profit chance: 4.4%

Case: $0.46
Key: $2.49

One open costs $2.95: the case and its key.

EV and ROI are gross, before marketplace fees.

Odds by rarity

Valve published odds

Knife or glove chance: 1 in 385

Valve's published odds for each rarity in this case, with the number of items in each
Rarity	Odds	Items
Rare Special Item	0.26%	52
Covert	0.64%	2
Classified	3.20%	3
Restricted	15.98%	5
Mil-Spec Grade	79.92%	7

What the case holds

Rare Special Item

★ Nomad Knife Rare Special
★ Nomad Knife | Blue Steel Rare Special
★ Nomad Knife | Boreal Forest Rare Special
★ Nomad Knife | Case Hardened Rare Special
★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web Rare Special
★ Nomad Knife | Fade Rare Special
★ Nomad Knife | Forest DDPAT Rare Special
★ Nomad Knife | Night Stripe Rare Special
★ Nomad Knife | Safari Mesh Rare Special
★ Nomad Knife | Scorched Rare Special
★ Nomad Knife | Slaughter Rare Special
★ Nomad Knife | Stained Rare Special
★ Nomad Knife | Urban Masked Rare Special
★ Paracord Knife Rare Special
★ Paracord Knife | Blue Steel Rare Special
★ Paracord Knife | Boreal Forest Rare Special
★ Paracord Knife | Case Hardened Rare Special
★ Paracord Knife | Crimson Web Rare Special
★ Paracord Knife | Fade Rare Special
★ Paracord Knife | Forest DDPAT Rare Special
★ Paracord Knife | Night Stripe Rare Special
★ Paracord Knife | Safari Mesh Rare Special
★ Paracord Knife | Scorched Rare Special
★ Paracord Knife | Slaughter Rare Special
★ Paracord Knife | Stained Rare Special
★ Paracord Knife | Urban Masked Rare Special
★ Skeleton Knife Rare Special
★ Skeleton Knife | Blue Steel Rare Special
★ Skeleton Knife | Boreal Forest Rare Special
★ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened Rare Special
★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web Rare Special
★ Skeleton Knife | Fade Rare Special
★ Skeleton Knife | Forest DDPAT Rare Special
★ Skeleton Knife | Night Stripe Rare Special
★ Skeleton Knife | Safari Mesh Rare Special
★ Skeleton Knife | Scorched Rare Special
★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter Rare Special
★ Skeleton Knife | Stained Rare Special
★ Skeleton Knife | Urban Masked Rare Special
★ Survival Knife Rare Special
★ Survival Knife | Blue Steel Rare Special
★ Survival Knife | Boreal Forest Rare Special
★ Survival Knife | Case Hardened Rare Special
★ Survival Knife | Crimson Web Rare Special
★ Survival Knife | Fade Rare Special
★ Survival Knife | Forest DDPAT Rare Special
★ Survival Knife | Night Stripe Rare Special
★ Survival Knife | Safari Mesh Rare Special
★ Survival Knife | Scorched Rare Special
★ Survival Knife | Slaughter Rare Special
★ Survival Knife | Stained Rare Special
★ Survival Knife | Urban Masked Rare Special

Covert

AK-47 | Legion of Anubis Covert
Desert Eagle | Printstream Covert

Classified

Glock-18 | Vogue Classified
M4A4 | Tooth Fairy Classified
XM1014 | Entombed Classified

Restricted

Galil AR | Connexion Restricted
MAC-10 | Allure Restricted
MAG-7 | Monster Call Restricted
MP5-SD | Kitbash Restricted
Tec-9 | Brother Restricted

Mil-Spec Grade

Negev | Ultralight Mil-Spec
P2000 | Gnarled Mil-Spec
P250 | Cassette Mil-Spec
P90 | Freight Mil-Spec
PP-Bizon | Runic Mil-Spec
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty Mil-Spec
SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 Mil-Spec

Questions

What is inside the Fracture Case?: Each open gives one item from one tier: a mil-spec skin on 79.9% of opens, a restricted skin on 16%, a classified skin on 3.2%, the covert pair on 0.6% and a knife on 0.3%. Those tier odds are the same in every weapon case; what changes is the skins and knives behind them.
What knives can you get from the Fracture Case?: Its golds are knives and nothing else. Finishes in the pool include ★ Survival Knife | Crimson Web, ★ Nomad Knife | Slaughter, ★ Paracord Knife | Case Hardened, ★ Skeleton Knife | Blue Steel and ★ Paracord Knife | Night Stripe. A finish found on one knife type is found on the others as well, so the pool is a grid of types by finishes.
What are the odds of getting a knife from the Fracture Case?: Any knife lands on 0.3% of opens. That is the chance of the tier, not of one knife: the open reaches the tier first and then picks a single finish, so the odds of one exact knife, such as ★ Skeleton Knife | Fade, are a small part of that figure.
What skins are in the Fracture Case?: Beyond the covert and classified skins, the restricted tier has MAC-10 | Allure, MAG-7 | Monster Call, Tec-9 | Brother, Galil AR | Connexion and MP5-SD | Kitbash. The mil-spec tier, where most opens end, holds P250 | Cassette, SSG 08 | Mainframe 001, PP-Bizon | Runic, Negev | Ultralight, P90 | Freight, P2000 | Gnarled and SG 553 | Ol' Rusty.
When was the Fracture Case released, and can you get gloves from it?: The Fracture Case was released on August 6, 2020, and it has no gloves in any tier. Its rare special tier is all knives, so a gold from it is either a vanilla knife such as ★ Survival Knife or a finished one such as ★ Nomad Knife | Fade.
Is the Fracture Case worth it?: The expected value block on this page gives the answer in numbers, before fees: the value of every skin and knife, weighted by how often it drops, set against the price of the case and a key. ROI and profit chance sit next to it, and its figures change with each price snapshot.